Published On: Sun, Jun 10th, 2018

Fantasy: ADP Report – Watson trending dangerously high, Cousins a bargain

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Monitoring average draft positions in the months or weeks leading up to fantasy football drafts can help managers gain an idea of where they’ll be able to get a player based on the public’s general perception.

Players trending high in mid-June could be far too expensive by the heart of draft season, while those beginning to drop now without particularly negative news surrounding them could represent tremendous bargains.

Here’s a look at some players to start avoiding or targeting:

(All ADPs as of June 9 and courtesy Fantasy Football Calculator)

Trending too high

Deshaun Watson, QB, Texans

ADP: 3.02

The major issue with Watson’s current draft position isn’t just his overall ranking but the fact that a recent surge now has him going three picks ahead of Aaron Rodgers as the No. 1 quarterback off the board and nearly two full rounds ahead of Tom Brady.

Watson had finishes of QB1 (2), QB2 (2), QB7, and QB15 in his six starts last season. While his best performances consisted of three or more passing touchdowns, his overall value was boosted by his two rushing touchdowns on the season.

It’s unknown if he’ll possess the same mobility coming back from a torn ACL, potentially detracting from the elite ceiling required of a third-round quarterback. Watson was a much safer selection as the QB3 near the end of the fourth round just a month and a half ago.

Jerick McKinnon, RB, 49ers

ADP: 2.09

McKinnon’s current draft spot at the end of the second round isn’t too alarming, but it’s the rise from pick 4.03 just two weeks ago that’s cause for concern.

The former Minnesota Vikings back used 201 total touches to finish as the RB24 last season. He finished as RB3 and 6 when he received season highs of 22 and 20 touches in Weeks 5 and 6, respectively.

The early hype is warranted as the 26-year-old will come out from behind veteran Latavius Murray to lead a backfield with sophomore Matt Breida representing his main competition. And a dramatic increase in passing-game work is widely projected under head coach Kyle Shanahan.

But McKinnon has never received more than 202 touches in a single regular season, and he’s currently being picked as RB15. Of last season’s top 15 backs, just two had fewer than 202 total touches and none did it with fewer than 228 touches in 2016.

Derrius Guice, RB, Redskins

ADP: 4.05

Guice’s price has been soaring over the last couple of weeks when he was initially being picked at the end of the sixth round.

His current fourth-round ADP is nearly five full rounds ahead of more experienced teammate and passing-game star Chris Thompson. Thompson had set career bests of 510 receiving yards and six total touchdowns in just 10 games prior to a season-ending injury in 2017.

Thompson should retain the majority of work on passing downs, as Guice caught a total of just 29 passes in three seasons at LSU. The rookie will cede at least some ground work to the combination of Thompson, Rob Kelley, and Samaje Perine.

Looking like bargains

Corey Davis, WR, Titans

ADP: 7.07

The fantasy values of Davis and QB Marcus Mariota are inherently linked, and both have been falling of late, with Davis slipping by nearly a full round over the past week.

The No. 5 pick of the 2017 draft was limited to 11 games in his rookie season, posting single-game highs of six receptions (twice) and 91 yards while going without a touchdown until he scored two on just five catches against the New England Patriots in the divisional-round loss.

Titans offensive coordinator Matt LaFleur comes over from a Los Angeles Rams team that spread the ball around the receiving corps last season, but Davis can star in a thinner Titans group that hasn’t shown any sign of bringing back veteran Eric Decker.

Emmanuel Sanders, WR, Broncos

ADP: 8.08

As teammate Demaryius Thomas continues to go near the end of the fourth round, Sanders has fallen from the sixth round to the latter half of the eighth in the past two months.

When the pair were last both healthy in 2016, Thomas and Sanders finished as wide receivers 19 and 21, respectively. They finished at WR13 and 18, respectively, in 2015.

With quarterback play expected to be greatly improved with the free-agent signing of Case Keenum, the pair should return to their elite form. Longer drives will allow for more targets and receptions, as well as more plentiful visits to the red zone – an area of the field where the two have routinely posted similar touchdown totals. Thomas’ edge shouldn’t be nearly as large.

Kirk Cousins, QB, Vikings

ADP: 7.06

The once highest-paid QB in the league has slipped roughly three rounds since first signing with the Vikings early in free agency, though not much has changed for the rest of the offense.

Cousins was last year’s QB6 while with the Washington Redskins. He now has two receivers at his disposal in Adam Thielen and Stefon Diggs who finished as WR12 and 17, respectively, and higher than any pass catcher from Washington in 2017. Vikings tight end Kyle Rudolph also finished eight spots ahead of Washington’s Vernon Davis.

Cousins may lose some of his rushing yards – he gained 179 yards on the ground in 2017 – but more red-zone visits could allow him to build on his 13 rushing touchdowns over the past three seasons.

(Photos courtesy: Getty Images)

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